Seasonality

Time-of-year behavior. There is no normal time of year.

• Your audience is in resolution mode and only buying things that promise self-improvement.

  Unless you sell protein powder or productivity software, this is a headwind.

  In effect Jan

• Dry January is suppressing an entire category, and adjacent categories out of solidarity.

  In effect Jan

• January routines have hardened into something no promotion can penetrate.

  Wake, commute, endure, repeat. Your ad is not on the schedule.

  In effect Jan

• Nobody's annual plan has been finalized, so nobody is committing to anything.

  In effect Jan

• The country is technically back at work but functionally still in transition.

  Give it another week. Then it will be February, which has its own problems.

  In effect 01-02 to 01-10

• Resolution abandonment season has begun, and shame is not a conversion driver.

  In effect 01-15 to 01-31

• February has fewer days, therefore everything looks bad.

  Month-over-month comparisons will remain unfair until March, when they become unfair in the other direction.

  In effect Feb

• A 28-day month against a 31-day comp is a 10 percent headwind before anyone underperforms.

  In effect Feb

• Winter fatigue has reached the stage where consumers are conserving enthusiasm.

  There is none left over for your offer.

  In effect Feb

• Purchase behavior is hibernating and will emerge sometime in spring.

  In effect Feb

• Discretionary spend is going to mulch.

  Sixty dollars of it at a time, every weekend, until June.

  In effect Apr, May

• Home project season has begun and every household budget now reports to a hardware store.

  In effect Apr, May

• Spring cleaning has your audience in divestment mode.

  They are removing objects from their homes. You are asking them to add one.

  In effect Apr

• It is graduation season, and gift budgets have been claimed by people in rented gowns.

  In effect 05-10 to 06-15

• Graduation open house season is consuming every suburban weekend and its sheet cake budget.

  In effect 05-20 to 06-30

• Wedding season is extracting registry spend, travel spend, and attention from your exact demographic.

  The 25 to 40 cohort is fully allocated through the end of the window.

  In effect 05-15 to 06-30, 09-01 to 09-30

• Everyone between 25 and 40 is at a wedding right now.

  The ones who are not are traveling to one.

  In effect 05-15 to 06-30, 09-01 to 09-30 · Saturdays

• Being a wedding guest is now a four-figure commitment, and your product is the tradeoff.

  In effect 05-15 to 06-30, 09-01 to 09-30

• September is the new June for weddings, which means this problem now happens twice.

  Consult the excuse from May. It applies again.

  In effect Sep

• The summer slump is real, documented, and conveniently unfalsifiable.

  Every metric that went down did so seasonally.

  In effect 06-01 to 08-15

• School just let out and every household with children is in logistical freefall.

  Nobody evaluates mid-funnel content from inside a minivan.

  In effect 06-01 to 06-15

• Camp drop-off schedules have replaced consumer intent as the organizing principle of family life.

  In effect 06-01 to 06-20

• No deal moves in July. The buyers are gone and their approvers are more gone.

  In effect Jul

• Children are home for the summer. Interpret all attention metrics accordingly.

  Session depth is now measured in interruptions.

  In effect 06-10 to 08-15

• Nothing sent in July is read in July.

  It is read in September, marked unread, and read again in October.

  In effect Jul

• It is houseguest season, and hosting leaves no bandwidth for considered purchases.

  In effect 06-15 to 08-15

• Back-to-school creative went live in July and consumers are punishing everyone for it.

  In effect 07-25 to 08-05

• Every parent in your funnel is comparison shopping backpacks with the focus of a procurement department.

  Zipper quality is being evaluated. Your ad is not.

  In effect 08-01 to 08-31

• The school supply list has first claim on household spending and it is seventeen items long.

  In effect 08-01 to 09-05

• Back-to-school budgets are flooding the auction and your CPMs are collateral damage.

  You are bidding against every retailer that sells a lunchbox.

  In effect 08-01 to 09-05

• Households are adjusting to new school routines, and adjustment does not include your checkout flow.

  Ask again after the first full week of packed lunches.

  In effect 09-01 to 09-10

• Everyone is adjusting. To what is unclear. But everyone is adjusting.

  September is when the whole country agrees to be in transition at once.

  In effect Sep

• September has new-notebook energy, but the purchases are notebooks, not your product.

  In effect Sep

• The summer hangover takes two weeks to clear, and this is those two weeks.

  In effect 09-01 to 09-15

• New routines have locked in, and impulse purchasing was not written into any of them.

  Structured people are terrible converters.

  In effect 09-10 to 09-30

• Annual planning season has begun and your buyers are in rooms arguing about next year.

  Nothing bought this quarter fits anyone's narrative yet.

  In effect Oct, Nov

• It is conference season and your entire B2B audience is at a booth collecting lanyards.

  In effect Sep, Oct

• Nobody makes a decision in December.

  This is the closest thing the industry has to a law of physics.

  In effect Dec

• Holiday party season has your audience commuting between open bars.

  Purchase intent does not survive the third one.

  In effect 12-01 to 12-20

• Every conversation now ends with a promise to circle back in January.

  In effect Dec

• The last real business day of the year arrived earlier than anyone admits.

  Everything after it is theater with laptops.

  In effect 12-10 to 12-24

• March is a transitional month and consumers can feel it.

  They are not sure what to want yet.

  In effect Mar

• End-of-school-year event density has peaked. Every parent is at a recital.

  The recital has a bake sale, which is currently your most serious competitor.

  In effect 05-01 to 06-10

• August is the floor of the email calendar and every sender knows it.

  In effect Aug